8
May

This is Why Technical Swing Traders are Struggling This Year $SPY

I have had several conversations recently with swing traders, who use technical analysis, about the difficulty in trading this year. Most of us are at or near break even, that is assuming we have good risk mitigation. Those who do not, the cowboys, are not fairing as well. The following two charts give some insight into why this is so. The first chart shows the SPY this year to date with the price plotted with a line and the 50 day simple moving average plotted in light purple. The second chart covers summer and fall of 2014.

Note how the price has whipsawed up and down through the 50 sma every few days this year. SPY has struggled to hold even a 50 day trend. During April, price went through the 50 sma seven times! When you look at the chart for last year, you can see that price stayed above or below the 50 day moving average for several weeks at a time. The lack of trend in 2015 is chopping trend traders to pieces and support and resistance traders are chasing an ever consolidating lack of support and resistance. As a result, individual stocks are struggling to follow through on their technical patterns. I remind myself that this is temporary and we will revert to the norm at some point. I would welcome a good sell off so that we can get back to a trending market, but for now, I will stay mostly on the sidelines. Here are the charts. 

spychopline

spytrend14

7
May

@BTFDtv Video show with Special guest Ryan Mallory of @Shareplanner $SPY $WWAV $GPRO $SGEN $MA

Thank you to Ryan Mallory of Shareplanner.com for joining me today on this comprehensive discussion of current market conditions.

5
May

Afternoon Update $SPY

The chop continues and the market is still giving mixed messages day after day. This whipsaw action is testing all my indicators and is getting old. We still have an ascending triangle in SPY but as we continue to test the bottom side more than the top side, my confidence in it is waning. The topside has a mattress of resistance to get through.

Meanwhile, cyber security stocks are taking a beating on the heels of poor numbers from QLYS. As such, CYBR is on my chopping block for a loss. Other stocks in my port are sitting on support and I will likely give them another day despite their relative positions to the 8 ema. These support levels have been more significant than the 8 ema of late. Here is the SPY chart. 

spy55

 

1
May

Afternoon Update $SPY $LRCS $CYBR $FLO

Action in today's SPY tells us that the recent drop to support was a healthy pull back in an otherwise continued trajectory to the upside. The pattern has created a bullish Ascending Triangle with an ascending trend-line below and a flat-line on top.  I will be watching for a break of that top line to new highs. Meanwhile I have added three positions today that are showing good potential, LRCX, CYBR and FLO. Here is the SPY chart. 

spy51

SPY Ascending Triangle

27
Apr

Afternoon Update $SPY $XIV $AAPL

Markets are pulling back after making new highs, which is not surprising and likely healthy overall. SPY is finding support at the recent breakout level as previous resistance becomes support. 

But a note must be made of the sell off in bio-techs. They have been quite the bubble over the past couple of years. Drug stocks tend to be volatile so it is difficult to say if this is just a quick correction or the beginning of a turn to the downside. 

This has brought some volatility into the mix so I will peel another portion of my XIV trade today, to lock in more profits there.

I will also sell the majority of my AAPL going into tonight's earnings but I will keep a small piece as the start of a core long term position.

I will keep my other positions as they are for now. Here is the SPY chart.

spy427

14
Apr

Still Sideways After All These Weeks $SPY

As a quick reminder, I will be leaving town tomorrow and will not be putting on a BTFD.tv show on Thursday but will be back next week ready to chat charts.

Indices are continuing to move in a range with choppy sideways action that neither makes new lows or new highs. This is providing a stock picker's market as some strong moves can be had while others fizzle out. Most in my port are holding up well but two tickers need to shore up or get kicked to the curb. TWTR is losing some ground and needs to recapture the breakout level/8 ema to remain bullish and CELG is looking like it is being rejected by multiple bunched MAs.

SPY is getting its getting its groove on today after testing the multitude of moving averages just below including the 8 ema and the 50 sma. But I note that it is still in a clear range that looks like a bullish descending wedge. This lack of drama is continuing to let the bottom fall out of volatility which is helping my XIV position. Here is that SPY chart. 

spy414

7
Apr

Who Wants To Be A $HACK

This post is overdue as I was asked by a personal friend for my thoughts on this fairly new ETF  just as it was testing and then bouncing off the 50% Fibonacci retracement around $27.23. It is a play on the cyber security space with holdings that include FEYE, CYBR, FTNT and BLOX to name a few. A logical investment for our times, currently, HACK is now breaking out of the bullish descending wedge. Here is the chart. 

hack1

 

6
Apr

Afternoon Update $SPX

After taking a significant dip in futures over the holiday weekend, markets let the bulls take the reigns and all major indices are rip roaring with strong candles today with oil at the helm. As such, I will hold on to all my current positions as they are humming along as well.

How long will the rally last? There is definite resistance coming in around 2114 in the S&P. As this whipsaw action within the triangle continues, the question is, will it break out or break down before reaching the apex? The following chart shows what I believe would be logical in the coming days but what it does when it gets to 2114 is yet to be seen. 

spx46

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