30
Jan

"As January Goes, So Goes The Year".....occasionaly $SPY

I have heard this saying a lot in recent weeks. It's funny because I don't remember hearing it quite so often before. "As January goes, so goes the year." I questioned this saying and pointed out to an esteemed colleague that January of 2014 was down but the year was up. His response to me was that there are occasional exceptions but that if I were to look at the historical data, I would see that it works. So I did!

Here is what I found going back to 2000. Feel free to scroll to the bottom for the results.

In 2000, January was down and the year was down.  

In 2001, January was up but the year was down. 

In 2002, January was up but the year was down.

In 2003, January was down but the year was up.

In 2004 January was up and so was the year.

In 2005, January was down but the year was up.

In 2006, January was up and so was the year.

In 2007, January was up but the year was down.

In 2008, January was down and so was the year. (But well...duh!)

In 2009, January was down but the year was up.

In 2010, January was down but the year was up.

In 2011, January was up but the year was down. (Although so slightly that I would be more likely to consider it a flat year.)

In 2012, January was up and so was the year.

In 2013, January was up and so was the year.

In 2014, January was down but the year was up.

Out of the last 15 years it has worked only 6 times. That's not very good historic odds in my opinion. So much for that theory.

 

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