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I had a few positions on the chopping block earlier but they have since recovered enough for me to hold them for now.
[10:37:26 AM] The Wife:
It looks like today is not going to be the end of the world, and I know lots of folks started getting gloomy on today's pull back but this was nothing in the grand scheme of things.
When everyone was ready to say that the market had topped out and was heading into a bear market in January - I kept saying that there just was not evidence of that...
...at least not yet.
...not in the big picture anyway and there is certainly not evidence of that now.
I see a pull back to a support resistance level and a bounce right on my level.
I drew out the level for you guys this morning before it even got there and I nailed it.
..because it was somewhat obvious.
That doesn't mean we can't go lower
...all it means is that this was a level of resistance/support.
We can bounce there then consolidate and head down to another level ...but it would take a lot of those before we are in a bear market by any means
The trend continues to be up and we are zagging off of our zig.
Here is the chart:
Indices are humming along, putting in bullish candles while continuing in a range that began in December. Today's candle on the SPY confirms the "trader's best friend" (doji followed by a gap up) that it put in yesterday and the 8 ema crossed up over the 50 sma for a bullish MA cross.
Looking at SPY's range, I note that the index tested an area of support multiple times. This could be looked at two ways. Either it will continue testing that area until the trap door opens and it falls out of bed, or it is telling us that the support is so strong that it cannot be penetrated. We will have more of a clue as the index continues to the top of the range and let's us know whether it is rejected there again or makes a new high. Here are two charts of SPY that describe my thoughts.
I will not be doing a webcast on BTFD.tv today as I need to go to the airport to pick up my Mother in Law. I will resume next week but have put together this post to let followers know what I am up to.
My timer has turned green on this action that gives us a doji sandwich in the SPY. In light of this, I have added some positions to my port this morning as follows.
MEMP is a JHook pattern out of a cup and handle of sorts with a pocket of volume above.
ABX is a nice looking JHook that has remained above the 8 ema ever since putting in a morning star on 1/29. Metals have been showing strength of late as investors searched for safe havens among the oil sell off. Looks like an easy move to the 200 day SMA.
WG has a big volume pocket to the 200 day SMA.
While indices continue to struggle, oil is making a turn to the upside with several oil stocks putting in buy signals as well as the underlying commodity itself. As such, I have added DNR to my small XIV and TZA portfolio.
DNR is confirming Friday's double bottom and Left Right combo through the 8ema and is breaking its downtrend line today with a move through the 50 sma. Here is the chart.
I have heard this saying a lot in recent weeks. It's funny because I don't remember hearing it quite so often before. "As January goes, so goes the year." I questioned this saying and pointed out to an esteemed colleague that January of 2014 was down but the year was up. His response to me was that there are occasional exceptions but that if I were to look at the historical data, I would see that it works. So I did!
Here is what I found going back to 2000. Feel free to scroll to the bottom for the results.
In 2000, January was down and the year was down.
In 2001, January was up but the year was down.
In 2002, January was up but the year was down.
In 2003, January was down but the year was up.
In 2004 January was up and so was the year.
In 2005, January was down but the year was up.
In 2006, January was up and so was the year.
In 2007, January was up but the year was down.
In 2008, January was down and so was the year. (But well...duh!)
In 2009, January was down but the year was up.
In 2010, January was down but the year was up.
In 2011, January was up but the year was down. (Although so slightly that I would be more likely to consider it a flat year.)
In 2012, January was up and so was the year.
In 2013, January was up and so was the year.
In 2014, January was down but the year was up.
Out of the last 15 years it has worked only 6 times. That's not very good historic odds in my opinion. So much for that theory.