28
Jan

Current Portfolio

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14
Apr

Still Sideways After All These Weeks $SPY

As a quick reminder, I will be leaving town tomorrow and will not be putting on a BTFD.tv show on Thursday but will be back next week ready to chat charts.

Indices are continuing to move in a range with choppy sideways action that neither makes new lows or new highs. This is providing a stock picker's market as some strong moves can be had while others fizzle out. Most in my port are holding up well but two tickers need to shore up or get kicked to the curb. TWTR is losing some ground and needs to recapture the breakout level/8 ema to remain bullish and CELG is looking like it is being rejected by multiple bunched MAs.

SPY is getting its getting its groove on today after testing the multitude of moving averages just below including the 8 ema and the 50 sma. But I note that it is still in a clear range that looks like a bullish descending wedge. This lack of drama is continuing to let the bottom fall out of volatility which is helping my XIV position. Here is that SPY chart. 

spy414

7
Apr

Who Wants To Be A $HACK

This post is overdue as I was asked by a personal friend for my thoughts on this fairly new ETF  just as it was testing and then bouncing off the 50% Fibonacci retracement around $27.23. It is a play on the cyber security space with holdings that include FEYE, CYBR, FTNT and BLOX to name a few. A logical investment for our times, currently, HACK is now breaking out of the bullish descending wedge. Here is the chart. 

hack1

 

6
Apr

Afternoon Update $SPX

After taking a significant dip in futures over the holiday weekend, markets let the bulls take the reigns and all major indices are rip roaring with strong candles today with oil at the helm. As such, I will hold on to all my current positions as they are humming along as well.

How long will the rally last? There is definite resistance coming in around 2114 in the S&P. As this whipsaw action within the triangle continues, the question is, will it break out or break down before reaching the apex? The following chart shows what I believe would be logical in the coming days but what it does when it gets to 2114 is yet to be seen. 

spx46

1
Apr

Afternoon Update - The Great Whipsaw Continues $TILE $NDRM $SPY

There are few rewards in this whipsaw market. The nature of which has kept the SPY in flat to negative territory for the year.

TILE is on my chopping block as it just can't seem to get out of the range.

I am considering dropping the NDRM that I put on today as well because it lost the open but it is still a "trader's best friend" gap up from a doji so I will decide toward the end of the session whether to give it another day or not.

I am definitely in a slump and the market looks to be turning back to red today. SPY is managing to hold the 2014 close as support for now. It has bounced off that area multiple times now. My strategy is not working in these choppy conditions and it may be time to lay off equities and turn to my more neutral strategy with option spreads until a true correction takes place and a real rally can ensue. Here is the SPY chart.

spy41

 

25
Mar

Afternoon Update - My Timer Is Red $SPY

My Timer is Red. That probably goes without saying after this distributive day. There is no denying the damage done by today's heavy markets.

STM is on my chopping block and I can't imagine at this point that it will recover the TLine before the close.

For now I intend to keep everything else but that could easily change by the close.

I do note that SPY has come down to the trend line that I have been watching for some time. Here is the chart:

spy325

 

24
Mar

Afternoon Update $ECOM $XIV $FSL $SPY

I closed ECOM today due to a strong sell off with volume and a loss of the 8ema. This is also a sell signal with the doji followed by the bearish engulfing candle: a Bearish Left/Right combo.'

My second half of FSL is on the chopping block as it has lost the 8ema and it is time to lock in the 24% profit on the second half. It is above my target as it is.
XIV is getting close to my break even point and I will take half of the large position off as soon as it does to reduce risk in the name.

SPY so far is holding the TLine but it is impossible to tell if this is where it rolls over to tag the bottom of the channel again or if it will pop higher off that TLine. For now my timer remains green.

I will hold all other positions. Here is the ECOM chart.

ecomlrbear

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